Getting the politics bug again. Hope it doesn’t last too long. At any rate, a few thoughts about the ten “official” candidates for the Democratic party nomination and one bonus candidate.

The Democratic party is made up of many non-geographical constituencies. Each candidate has a certain core constituency to go along with his geographic base. Given my occidentocentrism, I’ll start from the west and go east, as best as I can.

General Wesley Clark, Arkansas. General Clark is trying to be the first candidate since Eisenhower to win a presidential nomination on the basis of a military career. While Eisenhower was recruited by both parties, Clark’s barely known to many Dems. He is, though, a favorite of the policy wonk constituency. Since so many media figures are policy wonks at heart, Clark will be treated like a serious candidate. He’ll probably be routed in Iowa and New Hampshire and will need to dominate South Carolina if he’s to keep going. Could be a vice-presidential nominee, particularly if the nominee is perceived as being weak or inexperienced on defense issues. Free advice (worth every penny!): run from the center-right, attacking Kucinich, Sharpton and Moseley-Braun and drop out early to best position for VP nomination.

Congressman Dick Gephardt, Missouri. Trying to be the first congressman to win a presidential nomination in living memory. That in itself is a long shot. His constituency is organized labor, which isn’t that strong of a base to build from. He’s trying to build momentum in early states with advertising. Free advice (worth every penny!): try getting elected to statewide office before seeking national office. Really.

Ambassador Carol Moseley-Braun, Illinois. Has the backing of NOW and, as the only woman yet running, has an advantage with the gender-identity set. Splits the racial vote with Sharpton for the time being. If she can raise funds to stay in the race (a good possibility if the administration hasn’t completely given up on life issues), she will draw most of the other candidates generally leftward. There’s almost no limit to how low she’ll go. Free advice (worth every penny!): keep running even if it looks hopeless. Try to get on Oprah often.

Congressman Dennis Kucinich, Ohio. Another, and less likely, candidate for “first congressman to win presidential nomination in living memory”. Natural constituency is Vegans (no, those aren’t people who have a special interest in a 1970s Chevy, they’re the strictest of vegetarians). Since Vegans are a major portion of the Democratic party base, he should be in the campaign well into next spring. Free advice (worth every penny!): try to get Jerry Springer to campaign for you. It could be the only way you’ll get the media attention you need.

Senator Bob Graham, Florida. Senators haven’t done especially well in the last ten presidential elections (losing all three chances: Goldwater in 1964, McGovern in 1972, and Dole in 1996), but at least there’s a precedent of getting the nomination. Senator Graham appeals to the conspiracy theorists, which could make him formidable, but doesn’t seem to have much funding, which could sink him fast. Free advice (worth every penny!): If the third quarter fund raising tallies show any other candidate with more than twice as much money raised, pack it in and keep what shreds of dignity you may have.

UPDATE: Turns out that Senator Graham was also a governor, and a rather unique one. His propensity to execute people probably hurts his chances in the primaries, though it would probably help him in the general election. I think he's toast.

Senator John Edwards, North Carolina. The pretty-boy first-term senator has several gazillion dollars from his trial-lawyer days. Appeals to the litigious and the hard-core anti-smokers. Hasn’t done well in early states yet, but could benefit from any fall among front-runners. Is trying to graft on some economic populism. Free advice (worth every penny!): emphasize your trial lawyer background. People love lawyers!

Reverend Al Sharpton, New York. The candidate most likely to receive contributions from Republicans who are trying to sink the Democratic party. Favorite of aspiring race-baiters everywhere. Will demand (and probably get) a high price from a front-runner to get out of the race, give an endorsement and go into hiding. Free advice (worth every penny!): demand a supreme court seat as your price for an endorsement. If you don’t get it, run as a third-party candidate just to teach those other Democrats a lesson!

Senator Joseph Lieberman, Connecticut. He’s the most serious candidate, which is no surprise because he’s the only marginally serious person in the running. Appeals to the “religious left”, that fast-dying breed who believes in a supreme being that isn’t government and in liberal politics. He’s trying to hit all bases. Free advice (worth every penny!): try returning to the principles you demonstrated before accepting Gore’s vp-nomination.

Senator John F. Kerry, Massachusetts. He thinks he’s another Massachusetts senator with the initials JFK. So far no one else does. He’s richer than any other candidate except, in all likelihood, Edwards thanks to his wife’s ketchup fortune. Those who still swoon over Ted Kennedy’s late brothers may favor him, especially if they never read the Wall Street Journal. He’s the angry man. Free advice (worth every penny!): mention your military service at every opportunity, act haughty, look French!

Governor Howard Dean, Vermont. The current front runner. Since he’s a physician, he has the “health care reform” vote sewn up. His role in promoting “civil unions” for homosexuals could give him some edge with the homosexual bloc, unless there’s something indicating he opposes outright homosexual marriage. He’s got significant vulnerabilities arising from his relative independence on gun control. He is likely to self-destruct a la Senator Bob Kerry a few years ago by saying something that’s just un-PC enough to make him seem human. There’s no shortage of position changes too. Free advice (worth every penny!): speak your mind and don’t think too much.

The United States is made up, conveniently enough, of states. Each state has some similarities with certain of its neighbors. Everyone has their own ideas about how the states fit together into regions. For simplicity’s sake, here are mine:

West (13 states): Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming. The western states have been growing in population, wealth and influence for decades and, with the exception of California, show no sign of slowing down. In fact, folks who have tired of California are already swelling the populations of several other western states.

South (14 states): Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia. Mostly states of the old Confederacy and the border states that have a closer cultural affinity to the old south. Also benefiting from decades of population and economic growth.

Middle America (12 states): Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin. The rust belt and the farm belt both have had rougher times of it for the past few decades than the south or the west.

Northeast (11 states): Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont. Still lots of power in New York, Boston and Philadelphia, but not the overwhelming influence of decades gone by.

The geographic provenance of the Democratic candidates:

West 0
South 3
Middle America 3
Northeast 4

For comparative purposes, the geographic provenance of the winners (and losers) of the last ten presidential elections:

Winner loser
West 4 1
South 6 3
Middle America 0 5
Northeast 0 1

If I were a candidate from the farm belt, the rust belt or the northeast, that would give me pause. (George H. W. Bush ran as a resident of Texas, even though he really seemed more of a New Englander. It was his savviest move, perhaps his only savvy move.)

The background of the candidates

Ambassador 1
Congressman 2
General 1
Governor 1
Senator 4
Reverend 1

For comparative purposes, the background of the winners (and losers) of the last ten presidential elections:

winner loser
Ambassador 0 0
Congressman 0 0
General 0 0
Governor 4 1
Incumbent President 4 3
Senator 0 3
Reverend 0 0
Vice-President 2 3

Now that simple comparison shows that candidates with some type of executive experience (governor, vice president or president) have won all of the last ten elections. Unless the Democrats want to run either Albert A. Gore Jr. or Jimmy Earl Carter again, they seem to be short on candidates with that basic prerequisite. I should note that the sole governor to lose was a short, somewhat goofy-looking fellow from the northeast, not that that necessarily describes any particular candidate, mind you. ;-)

Is the field too crowded for an eleventh? Not necessarily. If the existing candidates beat each other up sufficiently (not an impossibility) and if the President looks sufficiently vulnerable (not likely, but possible), the repeated denials of the candidacy of Hillary Clinton will be piled atop the mountain range of her lies. If the most divisive person on the continent wins the nomination, whatever the result of the vote, there will likely be a second civil war. (Being that Hillary would be running as a northeastern senator, chances are that the insurgents would be angry leftists.) Needless to say, I hope that the junior senator from New York doesn’t run.