A few people take issue with my comment on
this post at Mark Shea’s site saying that the number of the Moslems* in the world in ten years will be substantially smaller than it is today.
Let’s look at various segments of the world to see the prospects:
The Arab states: In nearly all Arab states religion is intertwined with the regime. (
This article gives a few examples, there are many more available.) The Saudi regime is probably the most extreme example. It, as we know, finances mosques throughout the world that have been supportive of al-Qaeda and which will vigorously oppose most, if not all, of the regime changes that are to come. Once these societies are liberated and the life of the average Arab improves, the appeal of the mosque will drop as it will be so strongly associated with the bad old days. Once Islam is no longer enforced by the state, a degree of apostasy will follow. As the more rigorously observant
jihadis start to make life demonstrably worse for their countrymen, they will be shunned. Once freedom of religion is in place, missionary activity will further empty the mosques.
Iran: The exemplar of Moslem theocracy is on the brink of a massive repudiation of the 1979 revolution, as is born out
here. Iran has a very young population, most of whom harbor no warm thoughts for Islam given the suffering that they’ve seen it produce. Since, as
Suman Palit has pointed out, Iran’s natural interests are in line with India and Israel, a more open and pluralistic society will follow. Islam, being opposed to the pluralistic society, will be officially discouraged.
Greater India: Pakistan was formed in the 1940s when many Moslems in India refused to share the new Indian state with Hindus, Buddhists and Christians. Even so, many Moslems remained in India (though rather few people of any other faith stayed behind in Pakistan). Pakistan split in the early 1970s when its eastern segment found their conditions were worse under Moslem rule than they had been under British rule. Sadly, they’ve been unable to improve their lot appreciably with self-rule. Pakistan has been in the grip of growing Moslem influence and economic stagnation. India has developed a tolerant culture, a
robust economy and
a functioning democracy that is taking steps to guarantee human rights for its people. That news can’t be kept from the Moslem residents of the subcontinent much longer. Also when the Saudi money quits flowing in, the failure of Moslem rule will result in massive restructuring of society. Islam will again be associated with
failure and
humiliation.
Turkey is uniquely situated, with
a growing theocratic influence that is still vigorously opposed by influential institutions such as the military. The non-Moslem parties in Turkey, though, are hoping to achieve greater integration with the West, either through the
EU or new bilateral trade accords. It’s likely that the carrot of economic development will motivate most Turks to repudiate the Moslem agenda. I’m confident that the Central Asian states (post-Soviet central Asia and Afghanistan) have learned from the Afghan experience with the Taliban. Modernization will come here, largely on the Turkish model. Turkey’s desire to expand its influence in central Asia will likewise shape its policies toward religion.
In Sub-Saharan Africa:, Christianity has long been
growing rapidly. Setbacks to Islam elsewhere will accelerate its decline, as will the varied responses to AIDS. The Catholic promotion of exclusive monogamy is the surest way to stop the spread of AIDS, making it likely that AIDS deaths among Moslems will, over time, be proportionally greater than AIDS deaths among Christians.
Most Moslems in the Western world are immigrants from predominantly Moslem countries. So far the war has not involved them much. That’s changing as
this post makes clear. (Also good to see a major blogger have a URL problem ): In the months ahead, this
intifada will start to have some results, but not the results hoped for by its organizers. The Muslims who want to enjoy the benefits of life in the west will withdraw their support and the heretofore generous hosts that the Moslems have found will suddenly find that
Pim Fortuyn was right about at least a few things.
Southeast Asia (including Indonesia and the Philippines) is an area about which I admittedly know little. In general, the Muslim community lives among other communities in relative peace. There are, of course,
exceptions, but the radical Moslem rhetoric and action found so often elsewhere appear to have less popular support in these areas than elsewhere.
So, while thie choice of the word "tiny" was probably ill-advised, I stand by the basic assertion that Islam is on the decline. The adoption of terror is a result of desparation and will only exacerbate the decline. May we as Christians respond appropriately.
*I here use the term “Moslem” generally to mean the adherents of Islam who preach jihad and the adoption of sharia law, as opposed to “Muslim”, meaning an adherent of Islam who is capable of living in peace with his neighbors. However I firmly believe that Islam as a whole is facing a precipitous decline.